New Cotton Supplies Keep China Cotton Prices Range-Bound

According to research by Anhui Liang Futures released on October 22, 2026, the concentrated arrival of new cotton combined with a mismatch between supply and demand is keeping domestic cotton prices range-bound. The domestic 3128B grade spot price stays near RMB 17,400 per tonne, and the narrowing price gap between domestic and imported cotton has weakened the competitiveness of imports.

On the supply side, processing and public inspection are accelerating: ginning mill operating rates reached 80.24%, higher than a year earlier, and national public inspection volume rose 21.11% year on year, bringing more tradable cotton onto the market. Seed cotton purchase prices in major producing areas remain high - 7.5 yuan/kg in Aksu, up 20% year on year - providing bottom-line support, though upward momentum is limited during the peak listing season.

On the demand side, follow-up purchases of new cotton remain sluggish, with sales progress of just 2.9%, lower than the same period last year. Textile mill operating rates stand at 69.4% and weaving mill rates at 39.21%, both higher than a year earlier, yet mills are purchasing on a just-in-time basis. National commercial cotton inventory is 2.3294 million tonnes, higher than last year, with the increase concentrated in Xinjiang.

Looking ahead, cotton prices are likely to stay range-bound in the short term. Key factors to watch include weather in major producing countries, the pace of global textile order recovery, and the export rhythms of major cotton exporters. (Source: Sina Finance / Anhui Liang Futures)